For the past two years, Sudan has been devastated by civil war.
Since April 2023, the conflict has opposed the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), linked to the government, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by former army general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, along with various armed groups allied to each side.
The RSF made quick progress at the beginning of the war, notably besieging the capital Khartoum.
But more recently, the frontlines have started to change.
"We've really seen some shifting dynamics in Sudan. I think while the RSF had the upper hand in the conflict, especially around Khartoum, where they had besieged many military bases early on in the conflict, things began to change around September of last year," says Ladd Serwat, a senior analyst for Africa at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project.
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ACLED is a US-based NGO that collects data on both the military progression of conflicts and violent events against civilians.
Civilians bear the brunt of the war
Khartoum was recaptured by the SAF in March 2025, and the SAF has continued its offensive since. Many analysts agree that the SAF takeover of the capital marked a turning point in the war.
A first effect is the return of a part of the population that fled abroad, to calmer areas like Khartoum.
Civilians have remained the first victims of the fighting in the conflict. ACLED recorded 1,300 civilian deaths each quarter ever since the war broke out, according to Serwat.
But the violence is far from over in many other regions of the country. A UN fact-finding mission, launched in June of this year, said that it had documented "increased use of heavy weaponry in populated areas and a sharp rise in sexual and gender-based violence. It said humanitarian relief is being weaponized and hospitals and medical facilities are under siege."
One characteristic of the conflict is the widespread use of direct violence against civilians. Several Human Rights Watch (HRW) reports have documented RSF attacks against civilians in numerous areas of the country. While the SAF and armed groups also attack civilians, including bombing areas with no known combatants, RSF fighters have been accused of being behind a particularly high number of violent incidents against the population.
The war has also displaced an estimated 13 million people.
More ground battles and shifting frontlines
For observers of the conflict, it is clear that the fighting is unlikely to die down anytime soon. Its nature is changing, however: while the RSF have gained access to drones and have shifted focus to aerial attacks, the SAF have recently increased their reliance on ground battles to take territory.
"Right now, the most likely scenario is continued conflict, but with the violence moving into new areas. So, for example, as the SAF regained control in areas like Khartoum, we've seen the violence drop significantly. But we've also seen new offensive, especially shifting westward into areas like North Kordofan, south and even into west Kordofan," Serwat notes.
One area to watch, according to the analyst, is Darfur, the stronghold of the RSF in the west of the country.
But most importantly, the conflict is not only devastating for Sudan.
"The war definitely isn't just a national crisis, but a growing regional security issue," Serwat points out.
With neighbouring countries such as South Sudan and the Central African Republic, already destabilised by their own security crises and political fragility, the civil war in Sudan remains a conflict with dangerous potential for escalation.
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